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FIFA ELO Methodology
Understand the mathematical precision behind FIFA's official ELO-based ranking system, introduced in 2018 to provide fair and accurate team ratings.
FIFA's current ranking system, officially called the "SUM" method, is based on the ELO rating system pioneered in chess. This system was adopted in 2018 after extensive testing to provide more accurate and fair rankings across all confederations.
Unlike the previous averaging system, ELO adds or subtracts points based on match results, opponent strength, and match importance. This creates a more dynamic and responsive ranking system that better reflects current team performance.
FIFA's Official SUM Formula
Expected Result Formula
Team A (1300 points) beats Team B (1500 points)
Teams in knockout rounds of final competitions cannot lose points if the calculation would result in negative points.
This protects teams that have already achieved knockout qualification.
Teams were distributed from 800-1600 points based on their June 2018 rankings.
Removed confederation weightings from the old system, giving all teams equal chances to improve regardless of their regional affiliation.
Points don't lose value over time like the old averaging system
Equal opportunities for all confederations, removing regional bias
Clear distinction between friendly matches and competitive tournaments
Teams can't manipulate rankings by avoiding matches
Teams don't lose points in tournament knockout stages
Host nations benefit more from friendly match results
Expected results based on current team strength
Maintained rank order during 2018 system changeover
This methodology is based on FIFA's official documentation and represents the current ranking system used since July 2018.