FIFA ELO Methodology

How FIFAELO Rankings Work

Understand the mathematical precision behind FIFA's official ELO-based ranking system, introduced in 2018 to provide fair and accurate team ratings.

Overview

FIFA's current ranking system, officially called the "SUM" method, is based on the ELO rating system pioneered in chess. This system was adopted in 2018 after extensive testing to provide more accurate and fair rankings across all confederations.

Unlike the previous averaging system, ELO adds or subtracts points based on match results, opponent strength, and match importance. This creates a more dynamic and responsive ranking system that better reflects current team performance.

The Core Formula
Every match result is calculated using FIFA's official SUM formula
P = Pbefore + I × (W – We)

FIFA's Official SUM Formula

Pbefore
Points Before Match
The team's current ELO rating before the match
I
Match Importance
Weight factor based on competition type
W – We
Result vs Expected
Actual result minus expected result
Match Importance (I)
Different competitions have different importance weights
60
Highest Priority
FIFA World Cup QF stage onwards
50
Very High
FIFA World Cup up to QF stage
40
High
Continental finals from QF onwards
35
Medium-High
Continental finals up to QF stage
25
Medium
Qualifiers & Nations League playoffs
15
Low-Medium
Nations League group stage
10
Low
Friendlies in FIFA windows
5
Lowest
Friendlies outside FIFA windows
Expected Result (We)
Probability calculation based on rating difference
We = 1 ÷ (10(-dr/600) + 1)

Expected Result Formula

where dr = rating difference between teams

Match Results (W):

1.0
Win
Regular or extra time
0.5
Draw
Including penalty losses
0.0
Loss
Regular or extra time

Special Case: Penalty Shootouts

Penalty Winner:
W = 0.75
Penalty Loser:
W = 0.5
Calculation Example
FIFA's official example from their documentation

Continental Qualifier Match

Team A (1300 points) beats Team B (1500 points)

Team A (Winner):
Pbefore = 1300
I = 25 (qualifier)
W = 1 (win)
dr = 1300 - 1500 = -200
We = 1 ÷ (10200/600 + 1) = 0.32
P = 1300 + 25 × (1 - 0.32) = 1317
Team B (Loser):
Pbefore = 1500
I = 25 (qualifier)
W = 0 (loss)
dr = 1500 - 1300 = 200
We = 1 ÷ (10-200/600 + 1) = 0.68
P = 1500 + 25 × (0 - 0.68) = 1483
Result: Team A gains +17 points, Team B loses -17 points
Special Conditions
FIFA's protective measures for knockout competitions

Knockout Stage Protection

Teams in knockout rounds of final competitions cannot lose points if the calculation would result in negative points.

If (W - We) < 0 then P = Pbefore

This protects teams that have already achieved knockout qualification.

Initial Seeding (2018)

Teams were distributed from 800-1600 points based on their June 2018 rankings.

Pseeding = 1600 - (R - 1) × 4

Equal Opportunities

Removed confederation weightings from the old system, giving all teams equal chances to improve regardless of their regional affiliation.

Benefits of ELO System
Why FIFA adopted the ELO method over the previous averaging system
1

No Time Decay

Points don't lose value over time like the old averaging system

2

Fair Competition

Equal opportunities for all confederations, removing regional bias

3

Match Importance

Clear distinction between friendly matches and competitive tournaments

4

No Gaming

Teams can't manipulate rankings by avoiding matches

5

Knockout Protection

Teams don't lose points in tournament knockout stages

6

Host Nation Support

Host nations benefit more from friendly match results

7

Predictable Results

Expected results based on current team strength

8

Smooth Transition

Maintained rank order during 2018 system changeover

This methodology is based on FIFA's official documentation and represents the current ranking system used since July 2018.

Source: FIFA.com Official Documentation
Last Updated: 2025